Trends in the U.S. Power System: Demand Up, Emissions Down

Surging electricity demand (or “load growth”) is making headlines as data centers, manufacturing, and the broader electrification of the economy require more from the grid. The attention raises important questions about whether demand growth will increase U.S. emissions from greater fossil fuel dispatch.

This analysis examines what happens next. As electricity demand rises, we find that both the grid’s carbon intensity and absolute carbon emissions from the power sector will continue to fall—even as new natural gas-fired capacity comes online. A cleaner overall mix enables the downward trend, which permitting reform would reinforce and accelerate.